### Pythagorean Expectation

In baseball, one can "predict" the winning percentage of a team as the ratio (scored runs)^2/ (scored runs^2 + allowed runs^2), something called the Pythagorean formula.

- Data analysis in Davenport and Woolner article.
- Mathematical analysis using Weibull distributions by Steven Miller here.
- A linear formula.
- Tweaks of the exponent 2 for baseball and its inflation to (10, 14, ?) for basketball.

## 3 Comments:

Was it the Mets collapse that got you thinking about this? =)

You are missing a link for bullet #4.

Yes, the unpredictability of Mets and baseball, as explained by Commander Sisko in Deep Space Nine.

Bullet #4: Trail leads to

Daryl Morey who seems to have extended the theorem to other sports incl, Basketball. Ref:

http://www.ams.org/mathmedia/mathdigest/md-200402-toc.html

Wiki gives two other refs:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

Should Bill James be

in the Hall of Fame?

bill g.

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