Sunday, September 30, 2007

Pythagorean Expectation

In baseball, one can "predict" the winning percentage of a team as the ratio (scored runs)^2/ (scored runs^2 + allowed runs^2), something called the Pythagorean formula.
  • Data analysis in Davenport and Woolner article.
  • Mathematical analysis using Weibull distributions by Steven Miller here.
  • A linear formula.
  • Tweaks of the exponent 2 for baseball and its inflation to (10, 14, ?) for basketball.
Baseball in numbers can be found in the book called Baseball Between the Numbers. Check out the map at the bottom.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Was it the Mets collapse that got you thinking about this? =)

You are missing a link for bullet #4.

7:53 PM  
Blogger metoo said...

Yes, the unpredictability of Mets and baseball, as explained by Commander Sisko in Deep Space Nine.

Bullet #4: Trail leads to
Daryl Morey who seems to have extended the theorem to other sports incl, Basketball. Ref:
Wiki gives two other refs:

1:24 AM  
Blogger GASARCH said...

Should Bill James be
in the Hall of Fame?

bill g.

5:10 PM  

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