Pythagorean Expectation
In baseball, one can "predict" the winning percentage of a team as the ratio (scored runs)^2/ (scored runs^2 + allowed runs^2), something called the Pythagorean formula.
- Data analysis in Davenport and Woolner article.
- Mathematical analysis using Weibull distributions by Steven Miller here.
- A linear formula.
- Tweaks of the exponent 2 for baseball and its inflation to (10, 14, ?) for basketball.
posted by metoo at 2:32 PM
3 Comments:
Was it the Mets collapse that got you thinking about this? =)
You are missing a link for bullet #4.
Yes, the unpredictability of Mets and baseball, as explained by Commander Sisko in Deep Space Nine.
Bullet #4: Trail leads to
Daryl Morey who seems to have extended the theorem to other sports incl, Basketball. Ref:
http://www.ams.org/mathmedia/mathdigest/md-200402-toc.html
Wiki gives two other refs:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation
Should Bill James be
in the Hall of Fame?
bill g.
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